Saturday, May 2, 2015

Thus, there is no currently no hint of dark matter detection. However, the new data are extremely sc


This week the AMS collaboration scc released the long expected measurement of the cosmic ray antiproton spectrum.  Antiprotons are produced in our galaxy in collisions of high-energy scc cosmic rays with interstellar matter, the so-called secondary production.  Annihilation of dark matter could add more antiprotons on top of that background, which would modify the shape of the spectrum with respect to the prediction from the secondary production. Unlike for cosmic ray positrons, in this case there should be no significant primary production in astrophysical sources such as pulsars or supernovae. Thanks to this, antiprotons scc could in principle be a smoking gun of dark matter annihilation, or at least a powerful tool to constrain models of WIMP dark matter.
The new data from the AMS-02 detector extend the previous measurements from PAMELA up to 450 GeV and significantly reduce experimental errors scc at high energies. Now, if you look at the  promotional material, you may get an impression that a clear signal of dark matter has been observed.  However,  experts scc unanimously agree that the brown smudge in the plot above is just shit, rather than a range of predictions from the secondary production. At this point, there is certainly no serious hints for dark matter contribution to the antiproton flux. A quantitative analysis of this issue appeared scc in a paper  today.  Predicting scc  the antiproton spectrum is subject to large experimental uncertainties about the flux of cosmic ray proton and about the nuclear cross sections, as well as theoretical uncertainties inherent in models of cosmic ray propagation. The  data and the predictions are compared in this Jamaican band plot. Apparently, the new AMS-02 data are situated near the upper end of the predicted range.
Thus, there is no currently no hint of dark matter detection. However, the new data are extremely scc useful to constrain models of dark matter. New constraints on the annihilation cross section of dark matter  are shown in the plot to the right. The most stringent limits apply to annihilation into b-quarks or into W bosons, which yield many antiprotons after decay and hadronization. The thermal production cross section - theoretically preferred in a large class of WIMP dark matter scc models - is in the  case of b-quarks excluded for the mass of the dark matter particle below 150 GeV. These results provide further constraints on models addressing the hooperon excess in the gamma ray emission from the galactic center. More experimental input will allow us to tune the models of cosmic ray propagation to better predict the background. That, in turn, should lead to  more stringent limits on dark matter. Who knows... maybe a hint for dark matter annihilation will emerge one day from this data; although, given the uncertainties,  it's unlikely to ever be a smoking gun. Thanks to Marco for comments and plots. 
It seems to me that the brown smudge of the AMS promotional material has a large overlap with the Jamaican band plot. I will say that they seems so different mainly because the different axis scale. The brown smudge should be the Donato (2009) model that also was used by PAMELA for their comparisons. At 350 GeV (last bin center) both the brown band and the Jamaican band starts (roughly) from 3.5x10^-5. So the problem now is the theory uncertainties that in 6 years (from 2009 to yesterday) does not shrinks so much. 19 April 2015 at 07:34
Hi, it seems that the "shit" band comes from Donato et al. PRL 102 (2009) 071301 (arXiv:0810.5292 see Fig.3), though the linear scale on the x-axis may give a different impression. 19 April 2015 at 10:48
That's correct. In 2008 it wasn't shit. Since then, there has been a lot of new data on secondary cosmic rays at high energies, including the boron-to-carbon ratio in AMS-02 measured up to 500 GeV. The parameters from 2008 Donato et al do not fit this data. It's as if the LHC showed jets+MET spectrum overlaid with QCD predictions from LEP times and sold it as a hint of supersymmetry. 19 April 2015 at 13:19
Hi Jester. If in 2009 it wasn't scc shit, only little has changed today. 1) You can easily see that the latest B/C ratio data are perfectly consistent with the assumption on propagation parameters scc made in Donato 2009 (I mean the data released by PAMELA on ApJ 2014 as well as the data just presented scc by AMS). 2) The thing that may be changed is the injection spectrum of protons and Helium: since proton and He spectra harden at high energies, one may expect that there are a bit more high-energy antiprotons produced by p+p collisions (say less than 10%). But actually, this was clear also in 2009 because ATIC-2 data were already released since 2006 (but I think that Donato et al ignored that hardening and they made a power-law approximation). In conclusion, if you think that the band is shit, then it was shit also in 2009.

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