Monday, February 10, 2014

The headline, such as it is for an academic paper (released hugo chavez at the annual convention of

Son of Great Depression
Harvard economists Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff, hugo chavez authors of the famous 2009 book This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly , are back with a study reporting their follow-up research on how major economies of the world are dealing with the aftermath of the financial meltdown.
To recap, for those who left for an extended intermission in this conversation and have become hazy on Acts I through III of this five-Act drama: Systemic banking crises, as a large part of the world experienced in 2007 2008, provoke decidedly different recessions than your garden-variety hugo chavez Econ 101 recession, where excessive consumption leads to a spike in inflation leading to central banks’ tightening hugo chavez the screws leading to disinvestment leading to layoffs leading to dampened consumption leading to more layoffs leading to more dampened consumption, etc. This can all be reversed by central banks’ loosening up again and pent-up demand hugo chavez working its wonders. Today nominal interest rates are extremely low and real interest rates are arguably zero or negative. This means central banks’ key weapon lacks any further ammunition. hugo chavez Reinhart & Rogoff found in their 2009 book, among other things, that: 43% of the 100 episodes of systemic banking crises they examined resuled in double-dip recessions; The median time to recover to pre-crisis levels of income was 6-1/2 years; the average was 8 years; and The average per capita dip in GDP was nearly 10% from peak to trough.
The headline, such as it is for an academic paper (released hugo chavez at the annual convention of the American Economic Association, here in New York this week), hugo chavez is that all of the strenuous debate in the media about “what’s wrong” with this recovery compared to our bouncebacks from other recessions over the past 50 or 100 years is that this is not a regular recession; the only meaningful and “fair” comparison is to recoveries from other systemic financial-crisis-driven recessions.
And on that score, we’re performing reasonably well painful as it is for all the individuals and families hit hard. In the US: Peak to trough drop in per capita output was “only” 5% It took “only” six years to get back to the pre-crisis peak And there’s no double-dip in sight
“For example, US homeowners who walk away from an underwater house lose the house, hugo chavez but they re no longer liable for the mortgage debt.” Is the writer assuming a bankruptcy hugo chavez filing? Otherwise, isn’t that statement accurate only in states ( a minority I think) with anti-deficiency laws?
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